I'm tempted to "sell in May and go away". The markets are hitting all-time highs but showing some signs of exhaustion. Yields are creeping up after a recent Treasury bond auction underperformed. And with Russia set to launch a summer offensive in Ukraine, I'm convinced the markets could go sell off aggressively.
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I’ve been thinking about that too. Historically, markets do tend to underperform during the summer months for reasons I'm not entirely sure about. With the signs of exhaustion we’re seeing now, it might be a good time to take some profits.
I think this has something to do with institutional investors reducing their exposure over the summer holidays, when traders are away from their desks.
I’m a bit torn on this one. The markets are definitely looking a bit tired, and the bond auction doesn’t inspire confidence. Plus, with the situation in Ukraine heating up, we could see some volatility. But on the other hand, you never know when the market might surprise you. Unless you're willing to actively trade the market, being invested feels like the best long-term strategy to me.
The geopolitical risk with Russia is a big unknown. If they launch a major offensive against Ukraine this summer, it could really shake things up. I’m leaning towards either selling at least part of my portfolio to lock in some gains, or buying put options on the S&P for protection.